POPULATIONS GROWTH AND HUMAN RESOURSES MANAGEMENT

The Asian Development Bank (AfDB) developing country members (MDCs) are in the midst of a fundamental transition in their populations and human resources that affects many key dimensions of their social and economic development. Many changes testify to the successful development in the Asia-Pacific region. Infant and child mortality rates have fallen dramatically and millions of people can look forward to longer, healthier lives. Effective reproductive health programs have given many millions of couples the ability to control their procreation, not only the number but also the timing of their births. School enrollment and literacy levels continue to rise, increasing worker productivity and strengthening the effectiveness of civil society. The gender gap in education has been significantly reduced in many DMCs, and women have made progress in other areas as well. However, success in the region is far from equal. Many millions of people live in abject poverty, suffer from unacceptable levels of mortality and face a hopeless future. In too many countries, women are denied the rights and opportunities available to men. The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a huge threat to DMCs. One of the main challenges in the region is to improve the lives of the millions of people who seek basic human dignity. Demographic changes create both challenges and opportunities for accelerated social and economic development. Many DMCs will experience significant population increases over the next several decades. Urban population growth will be even faster. Job creation and food production will remain priorities for many DMCs. Pressure on the environment will inevitably increase. Rising pollution levels, deteriorating water supplies, increasing urban congestion, loss of biodiversity, global warming and a host of other issues need to be addressed. Population growth rates are beginning to decline across the region. As this occurs, significant shifts in the age structure offer the prospect of a "demographic dividend". Rapid labor force growth, increased savings and investment rates, greater investment in human capital, and greater opportunities for women are possible, but only if institutions and political policies and economic support these objectives. The demographic challenge of tomorrow is ageing. Already, many countries are experiencing rapid growth in the number of older people and this growth will only accelerate in the coming years. DMCs age faster than they develop. The time left to implement effective and sustainable programs adapted to an aging society is shrinking. This thematic chapter expands on these and other population and human resource issues, drawing heavily on the latest available data provided by the Key Indicator Statistical Tables. The situation in DMCs is described in some detail, but this chapter also compares the experience of DMCs with other countries around the world. To do this, the most recent data produced by the United Nations (UN), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank, the East-West Center (EWC) and other organizations are used.

The first challenge faced by many DMCs is unfinished business—the continuation of rapid population growth. Enormous strides have been made to improve the quality and availability of reproductive health services. However, relatively high fertility rates persist in many DMCs and even where fertility rates have declined to lower levels, substantial population growth will occur over the coming decades. The only question is how much population growth the region will experience, not whether it will occur. The effectiveness of reproductive health programs will determine when the DMC population passes the 4 billion mark and whether it will reach 5 billion. Most population growth will occur in Asia’s poorest countries, i.e., those that are least prepared to deal with many of the potential difficulties that increased rural density and urban congestion may bring. Feeding each additional 100 million people will require great strides in agricultural productivity, because bringing significant new land under cultivation is no longer an alternative. Providing each additional 100 million potential workers with jobs will require rapid growth in the number of jobs in the industry and services sectors and an expansion of the region’s urban centers. Continued population growth represents an especially great challenge on efforts to maintain the physical environment in which Asia’s billions work and play. Further intrusion into native habitats is continuing with potentially devastating effects for the region’s native forests, biodiversity, and genetic resources. The quality of the water supply, air quality, urban congestion, noise pollution, and solid waste disposal will present ever-greater difficulties, particularly in urban areas. Improving reproductive health services has been a priority in Asia not only because it was key to slowing the rates of population growth, but also because improving reproductive health is a desirable outcome in its own right. The millennium development goals identify both reduced rates of infant and child mortality and maternal mortality as priorities. More generally, better health for all is increasingly seen as an important development objective because of its intrinsic value and because of its contribution to economic development. Populations that are healthier are more productive and achieve higher rates of economic growth over sustained periods. Emerging health problems threaten to undo much of the progress achieved in Asia during the second half of the 20th century. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has reached serious levels in Mekong countries. In some other DMCs, the epidemic has gained a significant foothold, and acceleration in prevalence levels remains a very real possibility. DMCs that fail to meet this challenge will suffer devastating losses, but early action holds great promise. Experience in the Asia-Pacific region clearly shows that prevention programs aimed at reducing high-risk behavior can prove to be very effective in combating the spread of the disease. In the past, many DMCs experienced rapid growth in the number of children. Under these conditions, building new schools and training and hiring new teachers were among the most difficult and important tasks faced by the public sector. Some DMCs continue to experience growth in their school-age population, but for most, the next few decades offer an opportunity to improve the quality of their educational systems, to provide additional years of schooling, and above all to ensure that girls have the same opportunities as boys. In the future, most population growth in the region will be among adults, namely those in the working ages and seniors. At the moment, most population growth is concentrated among the workingage populations. This represents both a great challenge and a great opportunity. The challenge is to foster vibrant and innovative economies that can successfully employ the millions of adults who will be seeking new jobs each year for decades to come. Asia’s most successful countries have already met this challenge and, as a result, have achieved accelerated rates of economic growth. In the coming years, it will be the large countries of the region facing this challenge— Bangladesh, PRC, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan. The ability of these and other DMC economies to create productive opportunities for their growing labor forces will largely determine whether future millions live in poverty or not. The number of seniors is already growing rapidly in Asia. In many DMCs, they are the most rapidly growing demographic group. As time passes, their share of the total population will rise to unprecedented levels. Aging is now an issue at the top of the agenda in high-income countries as governments there worry about how to finance the high costs of retirement and health care for the elderly; for many DMCs, the aging issue may prove to be even more complex. Aging is occurring much more rapidly in DMCs than in the United States and Western Europe. Many Asian countries will find themselves with large elderly populations at relatively low levels of income. Many countries have not yet achieved the political and economic institutions that are critical to providing for the elderly. Although the family support system is much stronger in Asia than in the West, population aging will place enormous pressure on the traditional means of intergenerational support. Already the extent to which the elderly live with and rely on their children is beginning to decline—and rapidly so in Asia’s most advanced DMCs. Creating new structures and institutions to complement or replace traditional approaches is of immediate and vital interest. The populations of Asia are very diverse and meeting the needs of DMCs requires a very diverse and tailored set of programs and policies. Some DMCs are well positioned to meet the population and human resource challenges that are emerging. But others face enormous obstacles if they are to achieve the development objectives so clearly enunciated in the millennium development goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSION

This thematic chapter of Key Indicators for Developing Countries in Asia and the Pacific 2002 provides a broad overview of demographic and human resource trends in the Asia and Pacific region and examines some possible policy implications of these developments for developing countries in the region. Infant and child mortality rates have fallen dramatically and millions of people can look forward to longer, healthier lives. School enrollment and literacy levels continue to rise, increasing worker productivity and strengthening the effectiveness of civil society. However, success in the region is far from equal. Many millions of people live in abject poverty, suffer from unacceptable levels of mortality and face a hopeless future. One of the main challenges in the region is to improve the lives of the millions of people who seek basic human dignity. Moreover, demographic changes create both challenges and opportunities for accelerated social and economic development.

This chapter expands on these and other population and human resource issues, drawing heavily on the latest available data provided by the Key Indicator Statistical Tables. It focuses on:

·       Population, fertility and mortality

·       Population growth

·       Urbanization and associated environmental issues

·       Labor force, gender and child labor

·       HR trends highlighting gender differences

·       Macroeconomics and Health

·       HIV/AIDS epidemic

·       Changes in the age structure

·       Prospects for a demographic dividend

·       Implications of population aging

 

 

REFERENCES

 

www.adb.org. 2022. POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE TRENDS AND CHALLENGES. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27734/theme-paper.pdf. [Accessed 24 April 2022].

 

www.eastwestcenter.org. 2022. POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE TRENDS AND CHALLENGES. [ONLINE] Available at: https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/population-and-human-resource-trends-and-challenges?fbclid=IwAR3ftXCOgvUo4F6Yb03MSKiAwKnFS1MvAA5B2MJVSLUbzoB08f4em4GoKVc. [Accessed 24 April 2022].